Diligence on early-stage teams is structurally biased toward pedigree. The biases are easy to understand: pedigree is observable, comparable, and defensible to an investment committee. It is also a poor predictor of outcome at the resolution that matters.
The framework we use focuses on three questions. First, has this team demonstrated the ability to retire specific risks under constraint? Second, what is the gap between their stated operating model and their observed one? Third, when something has gone wrong, what did they do in the next thirty days?
None of these questions are difficult to ask, but they require sustained engagement to answer. Pedigree is a shortcut for diligence under time pressure. It is rarely the right tool when capital is committed for years.